Recent Market Signals: Sales Up, Prices Muted
- According to Reuters, Canadian housing starts rose 14% in September, reaching about 279,234 units (seasonally adjusted) — a stronger than expected gain. Reuters
- However, data from CREA (via Reuters) shows that existing home sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in September, breaking a sales growth streak, and average prices edged down 0.1% using their Home Price Index. Reuters
- In the Greater Toronto Area, home sales hit an eight-month high in September, while the TRREB Home Price Index declined 0.5% month-over-month — showing that sales momentum does not always translate into upward price pressure. Reuters
These mixed signals paint a picture of a housing market in transition: more buyers are active again, but the pressure to push prices higher is limited by existing inventory and cautious market sentiment.
Why Prices Aren’t Booming Even as Sales Return
Several forces are at play:
- Elevated Inventory Levels: Many listings have remained on the market longer than in prior cycles, producing buyer choice and reducing urgency.
- Affordability Constraints: Higher borrowing costs limit how much buyers can pay, even when they re-enter the market.
- Regional Disparities: Some regions or property types may see stronger pricing than others. In Ontario, areas like Barrie or commuter zones may experience steadier pricing than slower demand regions.
- Price Correction Pressure: Sellers who priced aggressively might need to adjust to remain competitive, especially in less-active segments.
In short: demand is improving, but supply and affordability are keeping a lid on rapid price increases.
What This Means for Ontario Homebuyers
- More Leverage to Negotiate
With less heated competition, buyers may have more room to negotiate on terms: closing dates, inclusion of appliances, or minor concessions. - Safer to Include Conditions
Buyers can be more cautious — insist on inspection, financing, or title conditions — without fearing immediate losing in bidding wars. - Watch Inventory Movements Regionally
Local supply trends matter. In slower areas, sellers may be more open to discounts or concessions. In high-demand pockets, pricing may still hold stronger. - Be Mindful of Timing Risk
Waiting for prices to drop further might backfire if interest rates creep up or builders reduce incentives.
If you’re considering buying a home or new build in Ontario, speaking with a Barrie real estate lawyer can help you understand your options and navigate the process smoothly.
Visit our Real Estate Law page to learn more or contact Chapman Steffler for personalized assistance.
FAQ — Rising Sales + Flat Prices
Q1: If home sales increase but prices remain flat, is the market weakening?
It’s more of a stabilization than a weakening. The market may be transitioning from a seller’s market to a more balanced one.
Q2: Could this dynamic last long-term?
Yes — if more supply enters the market (via housing starts) and demand remains moderated, we could see an extended period of steady prices and balanced activity.
Q3: What should buyers focus on during this phase?
Prioritize value, verify everything, avoid overpaying for hype, and ensure flexibility in your offer terms.
Q4: Can sellers still expect decent prices?
In competitive sub-markets, yes. But sellers in less desirable areas may need to price more realistically to attract buyers.
