Understanding the CMHC Housing Starts Report
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) releases monthly data on housing starts — the number of new homes where construction officially begins. These figures help forecast future housing supply across Canada and within Ontario’s key regions, including Barrie, Simcoe County, and the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
According to the October CMHC report, national housing starts rose 14% in September, reaching an annualized rate of 279,234 units (Reuters). However, the Ontario market remains complex: while construction activity is recovering, buyer demand has not kept pace, creating a market rich in listings but cautious in transactions.
To explore Ontario’s regional data, visit the CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
1. A Shift in Market Dynamics: High Supply, Cautious Demand
Ontario’s housing landscape has flipped from scarcity to surplus.
Here’s what’s driving the change:
- Many homes are sitting unsold due to high mortgage rates and affordability pressures.
- Developers continue to build, even as resale inventory grows.
- Buyer caution means more choice and negotiating power for those entering the market.
In areas like Barrie, Simcoe County, and surrounding commuter zones, this translates to more selection, longer decision windows, and increased flexibility for buyers.
2. Timing & Buyer Strategy in the Current Market
With rising construction but slower absorption:
- Waiting could bring more supply — but rising costs or interest rate adjustments may offset the benefit.
- Buying now can offer access to better incentives, flexible conditions, and room to negotiate.
- Developers are competing for attention, often offering upgrade packages, extended deposit timelines, or cashback incentives.
Buyers willing to act strategically can benefit from these temporary conditions before market balance returns.
3. Developer Challenges and Project Delays
A softer demand environment increases uncertainty for builders:
- Some projects face delays or downsizing if pre-sales fall short.
- Developers may adjust materials or design scope to manage costs.
- Larger urban projects remain more stable, while smaller developments in rural zones may experience slower progress.
For anyone purchasing pre-construction, it’s important to research the developer’s track record and timeline reliability.
4. Regional Variation Still Matters
Not all Ontario markets are reacting equally:
- Core commuter regions closer to the GTA remain more resilient.
- Rural and northern areas, including parts of Simcoe County, are experiencing slower sales and higher days-on-market.
- Local absorption rates, employment growth, and infrastructure expansion continue to shape each region’s outlook.
You can compare regional trends through CMHC’s Ontario-specific housing maps and reports (CMHC Data Portal).
Final Thoughts: Opportunity in a Shifting Market
Ontario’s housing market is evolving. With ample supply and steady prices, this could be an ideal time for buyers to act before conditions tighten again. Whether you’re purchasing a new build, investing in real estate, or exploring first-time ownership, understanding market data is key to making confident decisions.
If you’re planning to buy or sell a home in Ontario, speaking with a real estate lawyer in Barrie can help you interpret market conditions and protect your investment.
Visit our Real Estate Law page to learn more or contact Chapman Steffler for personalized assistance.
FAQ: CMHC Data, Supply & Buyer Trends
Q1: What is a “housing start” and why does it matter?
A housing start marks the beginning of construction on a residential building. It signals future supply and helps forecast housing availability months or years ahead.
Q2: If sales are rising but prices remain steady, what does that mean?
Stable prices amid increased sales suggest balanced conditions — buyers are returning, but abundant supply is keeping prices in check.
Q3: Are Ontario home prices expected to fall?
While certain regions may see price softening, most experts anticipate a flat or mildly fluctuating market as supply continues to meet demand.
Q4: What does this mean for buyers right now?
Buyers currently have stronger negotiating leverage and more time to make informed choices — a rare balance in Ontario’s typically fast-paced market.
